Why Hillary Clinton is Not Inevitable

Everyone has already made up their minds–Hillary Clinton is going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party as their next presidential candidate. It seems so unavoidable that the candidate is not even bothering to talk to the press, or for that matter, the American people. Why talk to anyone when you can spend that valuable time measuring the drapes for the Lincoln bedroom? But is Hillary really all that inevitable?

A few years back a candidate announced that he was running for Governor of New York. There were all sorts of assumptions about who the next Governor was going to be and there were some pretty formidable candidates already in the field. At some late date, a new name entered the race and I remember thinking at the time that this candidate must be crazy for throwing his hat into an already overcrowded ring. There was absolutely no possibility of this candidate gaining any traction with voters–and besides, there wasn’t enough time left for a viable candidacy to reach the hearts and minds of the huge New York electorate. I remember wondering who this man was, this deluded, confused Democrat who would put all his effort into an apparently Quixotic campaign?

A few months later, the answer came in the form of his resounding victory in the Gubernatorial elections. That sad Don Quixote had moved swiftly past the other more well-known contenders, and won the New York. His name was Hugh Carey.

And I never again assumed anyone was unelectable. Hillary may seem like the next president, but there are many months until election day. The next president may be someone we haven’t heard from yet. Someone by the name of Don  Quixote.

The Terrible Nose of the 2016 Political Season

There is an awful lot of noise out there, folks. That’s because–like it or not–the political season has begun (this year, earlier than ever). Unlike other civilized societies (Britain, much of Europe, and even a few third-world countries) the Presidential season in America lasts as long as the politicians feel the need to spew their verbal commercial vomit. In those other countries the campaign season is limited and brief. The UK just elected their new (and old) Prime Minister in a campaign that lasted a whole six weeks!

Here in the U.S. we are faced with the spectacle of a Republican Party where almost every possible candidate has declared, is about to declare, or is threatening to declare a candidacy. The “front runner,” is not even officially running but everyone has decided he’s the one to beat. And by the way, that front runner is the candidate that most people say they do not want to see running at all, Jeb (brother-son) Bush. Why is Bush the front runner? Because everyone thinks he is. On the other side we have the equally distressing spectacle of a Democratic Party that has all but thrown up its collective hands, deciding there is no–and cannot be any–alternative to the presumed party standard-bearer, Hillary Clinton (or as the pundits and anti-Hillary folks like to call her, “Hillary.”

So once again, American voters are confronted with a choice between a Bush and a Clinton. Boring! Boring! Boring! And, of course, this raises the obvious question: if we are going to have to choose between two oh-so-very well known candidates, why is it necessary to have an election cycle that goes on and on for almost two years?

The answer is this: there is so much at stake in the next few years, and there are so many interested parties here, that the parties (that’s small p) want to carry on the discussion as long as possible. And let’s be frank: an awful lot of people love this stuff and want it to go on as long as possible. And there’s money to be made by all those officials, consultants, planners and potential future diplomats.

It’s going to be a long campaign season, the longest ever. Fasten your seat belts, America. There’s going to be a bad case of jet lag after this one.